When will each unit need replacing?

✓ Tested & verified Updated: How we calculate this

Everything in the house has a date on which it stops being maintenance and starts being a purchase. Most people find out on the coldest night.

One comfort check a month

Monthly

One thing a month worth measuring, cleaning or switching over before the weather turns — the maintenance side of sizing, in two sentences. No product pitches.

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How this works

List each piece of equipment with its age and the life you expect from it. The years-left column is the planning horizon: anything under three is worth getting quotes for now, while there is time to compare and while the old unit still works. An emergency replacement is chosen in an afternoon from whoever answers the phone.

How long equipment lasts

Typical service lives, which is what turns an install date into a planning date.

EquipmentTypical lifePlan from
Air conditioner or heat pump12–17 yearsYear 12
Gas furnace15–25 yearsYear 15
Water heater, tank8–12 yearsYear 8
Mini split12–20 yearsYear 12
Ductwork20–30 yearsWhen the system changes

Replacing on a plan costs less than replacing in an emergency, because an emergency has no time to compare quotes.

Frequently asked questions

How long does an air conditioner last?

Twelve to seventeen years for a well-maintained residential system, less in coastal salt air and more in a mild climate. A furnace commonly reaches fifteen to twenty-five. Neither fails on a schedule, which is why the planning horizon matters more than the exact number.

Is it worth replacing before it fails?

Once a unit is past its expected life and needs a repair worth more than a few hundred, usually yes. Efficiency has improved enough that a fifteen-year-old system typically costs noticeably more to run than a current one, so the replacement is partly paid for by the bill.

How do I find the install date?

The serial number on the data plate usually encodes the manufacturing year, and most manufacturers publish the format. Failing that, a service sticker inside the cabinet or the house records.

How we calculate this

Years left is expected life minus current age, per row. Rows are independent — the total is the sum, which is informative only as an indicator of how much equipment life the house has left in aggregate. The typical service lives quoted are industry ranges rather than warranties.